Yesterday the state’s economists released their most recent economic and revenue forecast. The general fund budget for this biennium is now expected to come in at $14.8 billion, approximately $35 million below the third quarter forecast of $14.83 billion.This margin of difference is actually much smaller than some legislators and Oregonians feared it would be.
Along with general fund forecasts, the report produced by the Office of Economic Analysis contains important economic data and trends. Here are some of the highlights straight from the report:
- Baseline employment forecast remains essentially unchanged over the last 6 months, slow growth will continue to be the norm
- Oregon is not expected to recover all of the jobs lost until the end of 2014
- There are positive signs: filings for jobless claims are at normal levels and the majority of households expect to see their income rise next year
- Oregon’s recovery is fragile; the primary risk is the debt crisis in Europe
- Growth in personal income tax collections is expected to moderate, but remain strong enough to offset losses in corporate income tax collections and flat lottery transfers